Alabama · House · State Legislature

The Alabama House Safe R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Alabama House.

Chance of R control>99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 27.8 of 10580% range 24–29

D 28105 seats · 53 for a majorityR 77

PVIR+15

Seats up in 2026105

Chamber size105

Majority threshold53

District by district

105 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band

Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct

Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe No forecast — field unsettled or outside the D-vs-R model

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

			Democrat	Republican
83	Modeled D-vs-R	Jeremy A. Gray — 50 in 100	Jeremy A. Gray	—	D+0.1
68	Modeled D-vs-R	Thomas E "Action" Jackson — 53 in 100	Thomas E "Action" Jackson	Fred Kelley	D+0.6
32	Modeled D-vs-R	Republican — 57 in 100	Debra D Foster	Joey Callahan	R+1.8
10	Modeled D-vs-R	Marilyn Lands = — 59 in 100	Marilyn Lands =	Aaron Thomas	D+2.1
25	Modeled D-vs-R	Phillip K. Rigsby — 71 in 100	Allison T Montgomery	Phillip K. Rigsby	R+5.5
98	Modeled D-vs-R	Napoleon Bracy, Jr. — 72 in 100	Napoleon Bracy, Jr.	—	D+5.8
84	Modeled D-vs-R	Berry Forte — 73 in 100	Berry Forte	—	D+6.0
69	Modeled D-vs-R	Kelvin J Lawrence — 78 in 100	Kelvin J Lawrence	Josh Pendergrass	D+7.7
72	Modeled D-vs-R	Curtis L Travis — 86 in 100	Curtis L Travis	—	D+10.6
71	Modeled D-vs-R	Artis "A.J." McCampbell — 88 in 100	Artis "A.J." McCampbell	—	D+11.8