This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Republicans are favored to hold control of the Arizona Senate.
30 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Republican — 55 in 100 | Kristie O'Brien | Julie Willoughby | |
| 23 | Brian Fernandez — 57 in 100 | Brian Fernandez | Michelle Altherr | |
| 9 | Kiana Maria Sears — 62 in 100 | Kiana Maria Sears | Bridget Fitzgibbons | |
| 4 | Carine Werner — 64 in 100 | Aaron Lieberman | Carine Werner | |
| 17 | Republican — 65 in 100 | Edgar Soto | Anthony Dunham · Christopher King | |
| 2 | Republican — 72 in 100 | Amelia Gallitano · Daniel Toporek | Shawnna Bolick · Timothy John Ferrara | |
| 16 | Thomas "T.J." Shope — 83 in 100 | Elaine Aldrete | Thomas "T.J." Shope | |
| 27 | Republican — 88 in 100 | Kyle Clayton | Anthony Kern · Kevin Payne | |
| 12 | Patricia "Patty" Contreras — 95 in 100 | Patricia "Patty" Contreras | — · Anthony Jason Ramirez (O) | |
| 29 | Janae Shamp — 97 in 100 | Eric Stafford | Janae Shamp |