← Back to the Chamber Board
Arkansas · House · State Legislature

The Arkansas House Safe R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Arkansas House.

Chance of R control>99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 21.5 of 10080% range 1623
D 19100 seats · 51 for a majorityR 81
PVIR+15
Seats up in 2026100
Chamber size100
Majority threshold51
District by district

100 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
67Andrew Cade Eberly — 50 in 100Andrew Cade EberlyRepresentative Karilyn BrownD+0.1
70Alex Holladay — 52 in 100Alex HolladayBo RenshawD+0.5
9Representative Diana Gonzales Worthen — 55 in 100Representative Diana Gonzales WorthenMatt GoffD+1.2
71Republican — 55 in 100Cassandra MayesStephen BrightR+1.3
22Republican — 58 in 100State Representative David WhitakerR+2.0
62Dexter R. Miller — 59 in 100Dexter R. MillerRepresentative Mark D. McElroyD+2.3
56Mark Brannan — 66 in 100State Representative Steve MagieMark BrannanR+4.0
35Robert Thorne, Jr. — 73 in 100Audrey P. WillisRobert Thorne, Jr.R+6.1
19Representative Steve Unger — 76 in 100Jamie AtkinsonRepresentative Steve UngerR+7.0
34State Representative Joey L. Carr — 82 in 100Michael MiddlebrookState Representative Joey L. CarrR+8.9