This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Republicans are favored to hold control of the Arkansas Senate.
35 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 55 in 100 | Allison Grigsby Sweatman | State Representative Brandon Achor | |
| 9 | Modeled D-vs-R | State Representative Jessie McGruder — 81 in 100 | State Representative Jessie McGruder | Kenny Phillips | |
| 31 | Modeled D-vs-R | Senator Clint Penzo — 96 in 100 | — | Senator Clint Penzo | |
| 27 | Modeled D-vs-R | State Senator Justin Boyd — 98 in 100 | Eduardo Guzman | State Senator Justin Boyd | |
| 14 | Modeled D-vs-R | Senator Clarke Tucker — >99 in 100 | Senator Clarke Tucker | — · Mark S. Foster (O) | |
| 30 | Modeled D-vs-R | Representative Denise Garner — >99 in 100 | Representative Denise Garner | — | |
| 32 | Modeled D-vs-R | State Senator Joshua P. Bryant — >99 in 100 | — | State Senator Joshua P. Bryant | |
| 16 | Modeled D-vs-R | Sheriff Rodney Wright — >99 in 100 | Joshua Irby | Sheriff Rodney Wright | |
| 35 | Modeled D-vs-R | Senator Tyler Dees — >99 in 100 | — | Senator Tyler Dees | |
| 2 | Modeled D-vs-R | Senator Matt Stone — >99 in 100 | — | Senator Matt Stone |