This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Call the Map does not publish a binary control probability for the California Assembly. The current district rows remain available below, with each publishable, structural, and unsettled seat labeled in its own claim class.
The district-by-district results for this chamber don't yet roll up into a chamber-wide total the model will stand behind, so no control probability is published. The seat estimate below is still the model's.
80 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 52 in 100 | Andrae Gonzales · Ana Palacio | Saul Ayon | |
| 36 | Modeled D-vs-R | Jeff Gonzalez — 55 in 100 | Ida S. Obeso-Martinez · Tomás Oliva · Oscar Ortiz | Jeff Gonzalez | |
| 74 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 58 in 100 | Sergio Farias | Laurie Davies | |
| 27 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 61 in 100 | Brian Pacheco · Japjeet Singh Uppal | Mike Murphy | |
| 72 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 61 in 100 | Chris Kluwe | Matthew Harper · Gracey Van Der Mark · Frank Wagoner (O) | |
| 70 | Modeled D-vs-R | Tri Ta — 63 in 100 | Paula Swift | Tri Ta | |
| 58 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 66 in 100 | Clarissa Cervantes | Leticia Castillo | |
| 47 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 67 in 100 | Jason Byors · Leila Namvar | Greg Wallis | |
| 7 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 68 in 100 | Amy L. Slavensky | Josh Hoover · Sanaz Motamedi (O) | |
| 59 | Modeled D-vs-R | Phillip Chen — 75 in 100 | — | Phillip Chen · Victor Hernandez (O) |