Connecticut · House · State Legislature

The Connecticut House Safe D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to hold control of the Connecticut House.

Chance of D control99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 115.2 of 15180% range 106–125

D 102151 seats · 76 for a majorityR 49

PVID+8

Seats up in 2026151

Chamber size151

Majority threshold76

District by district

151 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band

Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct

Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

		Democrat	Republican
107	Republican — 50 in 100	Julie Kerton	Martin J. Foncello	R+0.0
104	Republican — 50 in 100	Kara Rochelle	Daniel Sexton	R+0.1
79	Republican — 51 in 100	Mary B Fortier	Cheryl L. Thibeault	R+0.3
77	Republican — 51 in 100	DeWayne K Wynn Jr	Cara C. Pavalock-D'Amato	R+0.3
71	Stephen R Ferrucci III — 52 in 100	Stephen R Ferrucci III	William Pizzuto	D+0.4
119	Alex Armstrong — 52 in 100	Alex Armstrong	Kathy Kennedy	D+0.6
118	Toni Lombardi — 52 in 100	Toni Lombardi	Steve Visconti	D+0.6
122	Republican — 53 in 100	Mandy Kilmartin	Ben McGorty	R+0.7
48	Democratic — 53 in 100	—	— · Mark DeCaprio (O)	D+0.8
34	Meghan Rosenfeld — 54 in 100	Meghan Rosenfeld	Melissa Ziobron	D+0.9