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The Connecticut Senate Safe D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to hold control of the Connecticut Senate.

Chance of D control98 in 100Expected Democratic seats 28.2 of 3680% range 2532
D 2536 seats · 19 for a majorityR 11
PVID+8
Seats up in 202636
Chamber size36
Majority threshold19
District by district

36 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
30Republican — 52 in 100Stephen G. Harding · Aaron ZimmerR+0.6
21Carolann Reid — 54 in 100Carolann ReidJason PerilloD+0.9
35Ethan Werstler — 63 in 100Ethan WerstlerJeffrey GordonD+3.2
29Mae Flexer — 64 in 100Mae FlexerChris ReddyD+3.6
7Democratic — 65 in 100David W. Kiner · John A KisselD+3.7
34Republican — 65 in 100Paul Cicarella · Brandi MandatoR+3.9
18Democratic — 71 in 100Joe de la Cruz · Heather Somers · Hegtner SomevSD+5.4
14James Maroney — 72 in 100James MaroneyOwen T. WeaverD+5.6
19Democratic — 75 in 100Mike France · Jason Guidone · Catherine OstenD+6.7
15Democratic — 78 in 100oan. V, Heart lev · Ruben RodriguezD+7.7