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Florida · House · State Legislature

The Florida House Likely R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Florida House.

Chance of R control93 in 100Expected Democratic seats 41.0 of 12080% range 31–44
D 35120 seats · 61 for a majorityR 85
PVIR+5
Seats up in 2026120
Chamber size120
Majority threshold61
District by district

120 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
45Republican — 52 in 100Leonard SpencerErin HuntleyR+0.4
93August Mangeney — 54 in 100August MangeneyAnne GerwigD+1.0
89Debra Tendrich — 55 in 100Debra TendrichJeff Buongiorno · Cathy HigginsD+1.3
38Michelle DeJesus — 56 in 100Michelle DeJesusEmily Duda Buckley · Marcus HyattD+1.6
117Kevin Chambliss — 59 in 100Kevin ChamblissMiguel GrandaD+2.2
101Hillary Cassel — 60 in 100Todd DelmayHillary CasselR+2.6
64Republican — 61 in 100John Rodriguez · Luis Salazar · Mike SuarezAngel Ramos · Dan WeldonR+2.7
37Jane Aman — 62 in 100Jane AmanRobert PraterD+2.9
36Republican — 62 in 100Darryl BlockRachel Plakon · Joshua S. SortoR+3.0
47Republican — 62 in 100Jorge Figueroa · Anthony Nieves—R+3.1