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The Illinois House Safe D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to hold control of the Illinois House.

Chance of D control98 in 100Expected Democratic seats 79.6 of 11880% range 7485
D 78118 seats · 60 for a majorityR 40
PVID+6
Seats up in 2026118
Chamber size118
Majority threshold60
District by district

118 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
63Democratic — 53 in 100STEVEN REICKD+0.8
65Republican — 53 in 100RICKY RIVARDDAN UGASTER+0.8
114GEORGE McCLELLAN, JR. — 56 in 100GEORGE McCLELLAN, JR.KEVIN SCHMIDTD+1.6
104MARY CATHERINE ROBERSON — 66 in 100MARY CATHERINE ROBERSONBRANDUN SCHWEIZERD+4.2
76AMY "MURRI" BRIEL — 67 in 100AMY "MURRI" BRIELLIZ BISHOP · CRYSTAL LOUGHRAND+4.4
97HARRY BENTON — 68 in 100HARRY BENTONGABBY SHANAHAND+4.5
95MIKE COFFEY — 68 in 100MIKE COFFEYR+4.7
48JENNIFER SANALITRO — 69 in 100AMANDA ZAHORAKJENNIFER SANALITROR+4.9
52Democratic — 71 in 100ERIN CHAN DING · MARIA PETERSONMARTIN McLAUGHLIND+5.4
80ANTHONY DeLUCA — 73 in 100ANTHONY DeLUCAADAM M. BEATYD+6.0
The Race Feed · 1 item across Illinois races →