Iowa · House · State Legislature

The Iowa House Likely R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Iowa House.

Chance of R control94 in 100Expected Democratic seats 34.1 of 10080% range 27–37

D 33100 seats · 51 for a majorityR 67

PVIR+6

Seats up in 2026100

Chamber size100

Majority threshold51

District by district

100 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band

Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct

Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

		Democrat	Republican
42	Republican — 53 in 100	Amy Tagliareni	Heather Stephenson	R+0.7
39	Republican — 53 in 100	Nate Boulton	Troy Clark	R+0.8
27	Kenan Judge — 54 in 100	Kenan Judge	—	D+0.9
81	Daniel Gosa — 55 in 100	Daniel Gosa	Dillon Fillion	D+1.3
72	Republican — 56 in 100	Eli Gordon Licht · Matt Robinson	Jennifer Smith	R+1.4
1	Republican — 56 in 100	Kenneth Kroll · Shawn Olorundami	Josh Steinhoff	R+1.6
98	Republican — 57 in 100	Andrew Fitzgerald · Ruth Ann Gallagher	Nathan Ramker	R+1.7
28	Republican — 57 in 100	Tom Walton	David Young	R+1.8
41	Ryan Weldon — 64 in 100	Molly Buck	Ryan Weldon	R+3.5
43	Jill Alesch — 67 in 100	Jill Alesch	Nicole Hasso · Brett Nelson · Russell E. Saffell	D+4.2

The Race Feed · 2 items across Iowa races →