This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Call the Map does not publish a binary control probability for the Iowa Senate. The current district rows remain available below, with each publishable, structural, and unsettled seat labeled in its own claim class.
The district-by-district results for this chamber don't yet roll up into a chamber-wide total the model will stand behind, so no control probability is published. The seat estimate below is still the model's.
50 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 59 in 100 | Heather Matson | John Hollinrake · Eric Pearson | |
| 47 | Modeled D-vs-R | Scott Webster — 80 in 100 | Nikhil Wagle | Scott Webster | |
| 49 | Modeled D-vs-R | Cindy Winckler — 82 in 100 | Cindy Winckler | Cynthia Mensendick | |
| 41 | Modeled D-vs-R | Kerry Gruenhagen — 88 in 100 | Tom Wieck | Kerry Gruenhagen | |
| 37 | Modeled D-vs-R | Molly Donahue — 88 in 100 | Molly Donahue | Randy Marzen | |
| 1 | Modeled D-vs-R | Christopher Prosch — 88 in 100 | Catelin Drey | Christopher Prosch | |
| 31 | Modeled D-vs-R | Timi Brown Powers — 90 in 100 | Timi Brown Powers | — | |
| 23 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 95 in 100 | Tony Thompson | Mike Bousselot · Wes Enos | |
| 15 | Modeled D-vs-R | Tony Bisignano — 96 in 100 | Tony Bisignano | — | |
| 35 | Modeled D-vs-R | Joe Stutting — 99 in 100 | Mike Zimmer | Joe Stutting |