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Kansas · House · State Legislature

The Kansas House Likely R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Kansas House.

Chance of R control97 in 100Expected Democratic seats 43.7 of 12580% range 37–48
D 37125 seats · 63 for a majorityR 88
PVIR+8
Seats up in 2026125
Chamber size125
Majority threshold63
District by district

125 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
39Republican — 51 in 100Zach MaierAngela StiensR+0.2
88Democratic — 51 in 100Candace Landers · Daniel SchneiderSandy PickertD+0.4
95Tom Sawyer — 53 in 100Tom Sawyer—D+0.7
15Republican — 54 in 100Allison HouglandLauren N. BohiR+0.9
78Robyn R. Essex — 57 in 100KaMesha Bernard · Tim LundbergRobyn R. EssexR+1.8
14Sherry Giebler — 60 in 100Sherry GieblerCharlotte EsauD+2.5
52Jesse Borjon — 61 in 100Toni ScaliaJesse BorjonR+2.7
60Mark Schreiber — 61 in 100Maddison D. GloverMark SchreiberR+2.7
30Democratic — 63 in 100Zachary Thomas Hawkins · Tyler Holmes · Amelia WiederaendersLaura WilliamsD+3.2
49Nikki McDonald — 67 in 100Nikki McDonaldTricia SinclairD+4.3