Kentucky · House · State Legislature

The Kentucky House Safe R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Kentucky House.

Chance of R control>99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 20.5 of 10080% range 16–22

D 20100 seats · 51 for a majorityR 80

PVIR+15

Seats up in 2026100

Chamber size100

Majority threshold51

District by district

100 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band

Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct

Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

		Democrat	Republican
38	Republican — 56 in 100	Rachel Roarx	Carrie Sanders McKeehan	R+1.4
57	Republican — 58 in 100	Erika Hancock	—	R+2.1
67	Terry Hatton — 61 in 100	Matthew Lehman	Terry Hatton	R+2.7
48	Suhas Kulkarni — 61 in 100	Suhas Kulkarni	Ken Fleming	D+2.8
31	Tim Hall — 63 in 100	Tim Hall	Susan Tyler Witten	D+3.3
45	Killian Timoney — 66 in 100	Adam Moore	Killian Timoney	R+4.1
35	Lisa Willner — 70 in 100	Lisa Willner	Bret Shultz	D+5.1
88	Vanessa Grossl — 74 in 100	—	Vanessa Grossl · L. Scott Miller (O)	R+6.3
65	Stephanie A. Dietz — 74 in 100	Aaron John Currin	Stephanie A. Dietz	R+6.4
33	Jason Michael Nemes — 77 in 100	Jennifer Hardin	Jason Michael Nemes	R+7.3