This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Republicans are favored to hold control of the Kentucky Senate.
38 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 57 in 100 | Sarah Cole McIntosh | Julie Raque Adams | |
| 6 | Modeled D-vs-R | Lindsey Tichenor — 90 in 100 | Christian Furman | Lindsey Tichenor | |
| 12 | Modeled D-vs-R | Amanda Mays Bledsoe — 97 in 100 | Tyler K. Dean | Amanda Mays Bledsoe | |
| 22 | Modeled D-vs-R | Donald R. Douglas — 98 in 100 | — | Donald R. Douglas · Michael Wieland French (O) | |
| 26 | Modeled D-vs-R | Karen A. Berg — 98 in 100 | Karen A. Berg | Everett C. Corley | |
| 34 | Modeled D-vs-R | Jared K. Carpenter — 98 in 100 | Jessica D. McIntosh | Jared K. Carpenter | |
| 28 | Modeled D-vs-R | Greg Elkins — >99 in 100 | — | Greg Elkins | |
| 24 | Modeled D-vs-R | Shelley "Funke" Frommeyer — >99 in 100 | Joshua Baker | Shelley "Funke" Frommeyer | |
| 10 | Modeled D-vs-R | Matt Deneen — >99 in 100 | Christopher Gatrost | Matt Deneen | |
| 20 | Modeled D-vs-R | Gex "jay" Williams — >99 in 100 | Stella R. Pollard | Gex "jay" Williams |