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The Maine Senate Likely D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to hold control of the Maine Senate.

Chance of D control79 in 100Expected Democratic seats 20.1 of 3580% range 1723
D 2035 seats · 18 for a majorityR 15
PVID+4
Seats up in 202635
Chamber size35
Majority threshold18
District by district

35 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
14Craig V. Hickman — 51 in 100Craig V. HickmanSteven A. McGeeD+0.2
20Michael R. Scott — 54 in 100Michael R. ScottBruce A. BickfordD+0.9
16Patric Aaron Moore — 58 in 100Patric Aaron MooreScott Wynn CyrwayD+1.9
8Republican — 59 in 100Michael TippingLeo C. KenneyR+2.1
15Kati McCormick — 64 in 100Amanda Ann HeathKati McCormickR+3.4
11Glenn Chip Curry — 64 in 100Glenn Chip CurryRyan C. OtisD+3.5
21Shanna Cox — 80 in 100Shanna Cox · Eryn M. Soule (O)D+8.4
13Cameron Reny — 81 in 100Cameron Reny · Edwin M. Mitchell Jr. (O)D+8.5
18John E. Andrews — 83 in 100Elizabeth D. BosworthJohn E. AndrewsR+9.4
32Henry L. Ingwersen — 84 in 100Henry L. Ingwersen · Jason G. Litalien (O)D+10.0
The Race Feed · 8 items across Maine races →