Michigan · House · State Legislature

The Michigan House Tossup

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Michigan House.

Chance of R control66 in 100Expected Democratic seats 52.7 of 11080% range 44–55

D 52110 seats · 56 for a majorityR 58

PVIEVEN

Seats up in 2026110

Chamber size110

Majority threshold56

District by district

110 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band

Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct

Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

		Democrat	Republican
86	Republican — 51 in 100	Joseph McClusky	DeBoer, Nancy	R+0.3
76	Republican — 51 in 100	Angela Witwer	Bill Kaiser · John P. Ludtke	R+0.3
109	Republican — 53 in 100	Anna Aho Rink	Karl Bohnak	R+0.6
55	Republican — 53 in 100	Hawkins, Alex	Tisdel, Mark	R+0.7
54	Republican — 54 in 100	Pounds, Sarah	Roman Gaskey · Jeffrey M. Omtvedt	R+1.0
2	Democratic — 56 in 100	Liberati, Frank A. · Gary Schlack · Whaley, Joanna	Kokinda, Ron · Zacharia Ortiz	D+1.6
13	Republican — 58 in 100	Mai Xiong	Casey Armitage · Mark Thomas Foster · Julie Leonardi	R+2.0
46	Republican — 59 in 100	Jan Maino	Kathy Schmaltz	R+2.3
15	Republican — 60 in 100	Jalal Abdallah · Leslie C. Herrick · Gary Woronchak	Hassan H Nehme	R+2.5
31	Republican — 61 in 100	Shannon Dare Wayne	Perry, Laura M.	R+2.8

The Race Feed · 2 items across Michigan races →