This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
No party has a majority chance of controlling the Michigan Senate. Republicans have the largest modeled share.
38 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Chedrick Greene — 53 in 100 | Chedrick Greene | Jason Tunney · Twillman, Chadwick | |
| 4 | Republican — 54 in 100 | Darrin Camilleri | Grzywacz, Marcie | |
| 11 | Republican — 59 in 100 | Joseph Michael Hunt · Alysha Johnson · Veronica Klinefelt | Johnnie S. Townsend | |
| 30 | Democratic — 67 in 100 | Carol Glanville · Rickie Kreuzer | Huizenga, Mark E. | |
| 9 | Michael Webber — 71 in 100 | Theresa Brooks · Brendan Johnson · Ren Nushaj | Michael Webber | |
| 32 | Republican — 76 in 100 | Amidon, Rebecca | Cole, Kim · Riekse, Max | |
| 12 | Republican — 77 in 100 | Kevin Hertel | Joseph A. Backus · Patrick Shawn Biange · John Goldwater · Eileen Tesch · Wright, Shelley | |
| 28 | Democratic — 83 in 100 | Rashida Harrison · Ted Kilvington · Robert Orlando Pena · Mark Polsdofer | Julie L. DeRose | |
| 14 | Sue Shink — 84 in 100 | Sue Shink | Tawn Shawnelle Beliger | |
| 13 | Democratic — 85 in 100 | DC Anderson · Sean Carlson · Cecil D. George | Ryan Berman |