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The Michigan Senate Tossup

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

No party has a majority chance of controlling the Michigan Senate. Republicans have the largest modeled share.

Chance of R control46 in 100Expected Democratic seats 19.1 of 3880% range 1621
D 2038 seats · 20 for a majorityR 18
PVIEVEN
Seats up in 202638
Chamber size38
Majority threshold20
District by district

38 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
35Chedrick Greene — 53 in 100Chedrick GreeneJason Tunney · Twillman, ChadwickD+0.8
4Republican — 54 in 100Darrin CamilleriGrzywacz, MarcieR+0.9
11Republican — 59 in 100Joseph Michael Hunt · Alysha Johnson · Veronica KlinefeltJohnnie S. TownsendR+2.3
30Democratic — 67 in 100Carol Glanville · Rickie KreuzerHuizenga, Mark E.D+4.4
9Michael Webber — 71 in 100Theresa Brooks · Brendan Johnson · Ren NushajMichael WebberR+5.4
32Republican — 76 in 100Amidon, RebeccaCole, Kim · Riekse, MaxR+7.0
12Republican — 77 in 100Kevin HertelJoseph A. Backus · Patrick Shawn Biange · John Goldwater · Eileen Tesch · Wright, ShelleyR+7.4
28Democratic — 83 in 100Rashida Harrison · Ted Kilvington · Robert Orlando Pena · Mark PolsdoferJulie L. DeRoseD+9.5
14Sue Shink — 84 in 100Sue ShinkTawn Shawnelle BeligerD+9.7
13Democratic — 85 in 100DC Anderson · Sean Carlson · Cecil D. GeorgeRyan BermanD+10.3
The Race Feed · 2 items across Michigan races →