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Minnesota · House · State Legislature

The Minnesota House Tossup

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to win control of the Minnesota House.

Chance of D control65 in 100Expected Democratic seats 69.3 of 13480% range 66–77
D 67134 seatsR 67
PVID+3
Seats up in 2026134
Chamber size134
District by district

134 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
26ARepublican — 51 in 100Dan WilsonAaron RepinskiR+0.3
37ARepublican — 52 in 100Darci SmithTom McKeeR+0.4
34AJason Heaser — 53 in 100Jason HeaserDanny NadeauD+0.7
18ARepublican — 54 in 100Leah HansonErica SchwartzR+0.9
32BMatt Norris — 55 in 100Matt NorrisLeslie LarsonD+1.2
45ATracey Breazeale — 57 in 100Tracey BreazealeAndrew MyersD+1.7
14BRepublican — 58 in 100Zachary "Zach" DorholtSue EkR+1.9
41BRepublican — 58 in 100Jen FoxWilliam BeckR+2.0
36AJim DeMay — 59 in 100Jim DeMaySebastian StossD+2.1
57BBrian Cohn — 59 in 100Brian CohnJeff WitteD+2.2