Minnesota · Senate · State Legislature

The Minnesota Senate Tossup

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to hold control of the Minnesota Senate.

Chance of D control71 in 100Expected Democratic seats 36.1 of 6780% range 32–39

D 3467 seats · 34 for a majorityR 33

PVID+3

Seats up in 202667

Chamber size67

Majority threshold34

District by district

67 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band

Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct

Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

		Democrat	Republican
48	Dan Kessler — 51 in 100	Dan Kessler	Julia Coleman	D+0.2
33	Nat Smith — 52 in 100	Nat Smith	Karin Housley	D+0.5
3	Republican — 56 in 100	Grant Hauschild	Andrea Zupancich	R+1.5
41	Judy Seeberger — 56 in 100	Judy Seeberger	Tom Dippel	D+1.5
35	Angela Nelson — 62 in 100	Angela Nelson	Jim Abeler	D+3.1
32	Michael Kreun — 63 in 100	Chris Ford	Michael Kreun	R+3.3
24	Nels T. Pierson — 65 in 100	Simon Glaser	Nels T. Pierson	R+3.7
14	Bernie Perryman — 66 in 100	Aric Putnam	Bernie Perryman	R+4.2
54	Ben Bakeberg — 68 in 100	Rick Olson	Ben Bakeberg	R+4.5
18	Nick Frentz — 69 in 100	Nick Frentz	Jackie Henry	D+4.9