This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Republicans are favored to hold control of the Missouri Senate.
34 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Modeled D-vs-R | Melanie Stinnett — 65 in 100 | Betsy Fogle | Melanie Stinnett · Cecil Ince (O) | |
| 8 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 71 in 100 | Keri Ingle | Jon Patterson · Dan Stacy | |
| 34 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 86 in 100 | Shereka Barnes · Pam May | Ryan Gerster · Mike Jones · Sean Pouche | |
| 24 | Modeled D-vs-R | Tracy McCreery — 92 in 100 | Tracy McCreery | LaVanna Wrobley | |
| 2 | Modeled D-vs-R | Nick Schroer — 99 in 100 | Susan Shumway · Michael Sinclair | Nick Schroer | |
| 22 | Modeled D-vs-R | Jim Avery — >99 in 100 | Jeff Abney | Jim Avery | |
| 10 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — >99 in 100 | Pablo John Los · John Wells | Tricia Byrnes · Mike Deering | |
| 20 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — >99 in 100 | Sean Falconer | Lori Rook · Curtis Trent | |
| 26 | Modeled D-vs-R | Ben Brown — >99 in 100 | Vicky Wors | Ben Brown | |
| 6 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — >99 in 100 | J. Don Salcedo | Amber Buckles · Ike Skelton · Derrick Spicer · Lisa Thomas · Rudy Veit · Jake Vogel |