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The Montana House Safe R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Montana House.

Chance of R control98 in 100Expected Democratic seats 32.6 of 10080% range 2638
D 42100 seats · 51 for a majorityR 58
PVIR+10
Seats up in 2026100
Chamber size100
Majority threshold51
District by district

100 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
71Republican — 50 in 100SCOTT DEMAROISSUZZANN NORDWICKR+0.0
80Republican — 50 in 100QASIM W ABDUL-BAKI · MEGAN LANEKATIE FRUITSR+0.1
19Republican — 53 in 100JANE WEBERDERREN AUGER · HANNAH TREBASR+0.7
57JORDAN VIEGUT — 53 in 100JORDAN VIEGUTBOB CRANKD+0.8
60ALANAH GRIFFITH — 57 in 100ALANAH GRIFFITHGREG LEMAND+1.7
46KIM WELZENBACH — 57 in 100DENISE JOY · ERIN R TATEKIM WELZENBACHR+1.8
62JOSHUA A SECKINGER — 62 in 100JOSHUA A SECKINGERESTHER FISHBAUGHD+3.1
3DEBO POWERS — 62 in 100DEBO POWERSCATHY MITCHELL · DEREK PEACHEYD+3.1
91SHELLY FYANT — 63 in 100SHELLY FYANTCHARLES HEADLEYD+3.2
31Democratic — 64 in 100LANCE ELLIOT FOURSTAR · NATALIE ONEALD+3.4
The Race Feed · 3 items across Montana races →