This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Republicans are favored to hold control of the Montana Senate.
50 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Modeled D-vs-R | EMMA KERR-CARPENTER — 55 in 100 | EMMA KERR-CARPENTER | JOANNA OBLANDER | |
| 29 | Modeled D-vs-R | SCOTT ROSENZWEIG — 59 in 100 | SCOTT ROSENZWEIG | JASON GUNDERSON | |
| 10 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 72 in 100 | MARGARET MITCHELL | MAXIMUS DASCOULIAS · JESSICA DYRDAHL | |
| 41 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 75 in 100 | ERIN FARRIS-OLSEN · DANA TOOLE | — · DRU KOESTER (O) | |
| 32 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 81 in 100 | BECKY EDWARDS · KELLY KORTUM | NEAL GANSER | |
| 8 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 83 in 100 | JADE-HEATHER M ACKERMAN · TYSON T RUNNING WOLF | CHRISTOPHER PAUL BUCKLES | |
| 42 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 91 in 100 | MARY ANN DUNWELL | NICHOLAS LANCETTE · STEPHEN LAPRAIM · MIKE TALIA | |
| 12 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 95 in 100 | MINDY LEACH · JAMES G WHITAKER | GEORGE NIKOLAKAKOS · RANDY PINOCCI | |
| 49 | Modeled D-vs-R | WILLIS CURDY — 96 in 100 | WILLIS CURDY | BRAD TSCHIDA | |
| 31 | Modeled D-vs-R | KATHLEEN WILLIAMS — 97 in 100 | KATHLEEN WILLIAMS | RICHARD AUNGIER |