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The Nevada Senate Likely D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Governed withheld forecast · district map available

Call the Map does not publish a binary control probability for the Nevada Senate. The current district rows remain available below, with each publishable, structural, and unsettled seat labeled in its own claim class.

The district-by-district results for this chamber don't yet roll up into a chamber-wide total the model will stand behind, so no control probability is published. The seat estimate below is still the model's.

D 1321 seatsR 8
PVIR+1
Chamber size21
District by district

21 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe Not on the 2026 ballot (staggered term)

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
12Modeled D-vs-RJulie Pazina — 52 in 100Julie PazinaRafael Arroyo-MontalvoD+0.6
8Modeled D-vs-RRepublican — 59 in 100Marilyn Dondero LoopLazaro Chavez · George Eldridge Harris · Steven Samuel Cohen (O) · Jamie S. Miller (O) · Robert Morris (O)R+2.2
9Modeled D-vs-RMelanie Scheible — 61 in 100Melanie ScheibleMaria ThompsonD+2.7
21Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 82 in 100James Ohrenschall · Junior RomeroAlejandro RojasD+9.1
10Modeled D-vs-RFabian Donate — 85 in 100Fabian DonateD+10.3
16Modeled D-vs-RRepublican — 86 in 100Chrystal RollLisa Krasner · Monica J StabbertR+10.6
13Modeled D-vs-RRichard Daly — 98 in 100Richard DalyMatthew Robert Buehler · Charlene Young (O)D+19.4
20Modeled D-vs-RDanielle Gallant — 99 in 100Calvin SandovalDanielle GallantR+23.1
14Modeled D-vs-RIra D Hansen — 99 in 100Ira D HansenR+23.6
2Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — >99 in 100Isaac Barron · Edgar R. FloresD+31.1
The Race Feed · 5 items across Nevada races →