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New Mexico · House · State Legislature

The New Mexico House Safe D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to hold control of the New Mexico House.

Chance of D control91 in 100Expected Democratic seats 43.2 of 7080% range 40–48
D 4470 seats · 36 for a majorityR 26
PVID+4
Seats up in 202670
Chamber size70
Majority threshold36
District by district

70 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
57Republican — 52 in 100CHRISELLE VERENE MARTINEZCATHERINE JEANETTE CULLENR+0.5
53SARAH ANGELINA SILVA — 56 in 100SARAH ANGELINA SILVABEN LUNA, JRD+1.6
23Republican — 61 in 100ELISE FALANGA TAYLORALAN T MARTINEZR+2.8
36NATHAN P SMALL — 63 in 100NATHAN P SMALLJULIA E RUIZD+3.3
39RAUL S TURRIETA — 64 in 100RAUL S TURRIETALUIS M TERRAZASD+3.4
4Democratic — 66 in 100CHRISTINA J ASPAAS · JOSEPH FRANKLIN HERNANDEZHEATHER SCOTT ELLISOND+4.0
38REBECCA DOW — 67 in 100DAVID L MOONEYREBECCA DOWR+4.3
68CHARLOTTE L LITTLE — 68 in 100CHARLOTTE L LITTLEDAVID E ADKINSD+4.7
60Republican — 75 in 100LUKE NICHOLAS JUNGMANNZACHARY DAVID ANAYA · JOSHUA N HERNANDEZR+6.5
34Democratic — 79 in 100JUAN A FUENTES · RAYMUNDO LARA—D+7.8