This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Democrats are favored to hold control of the New York Assembly.
150 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | Ian Phillips — 50 in 100 | Ian Phillips | — · John Lemondes Jr (O) | |
| 142 | Patrick B. Burke — 50 in 100 | Patrick B. Burke | — · Gary A. Dickson (O) | |
| 4 | Rebecca A. Kassay — 50 in 100 | Rebecca A. Kassay | — · William A. Sussman (O) | |
| 112 | Mario L. Fantini — 51 in 100 | Mario L. Fantini | — · Mary Beth Walsh (O) | |
| 111 | Angelo L. Santabarbara — 53 in 100 | Angelo L. Santabarbara | — · Nicholas J. Sokaris (O) | |
| 100 | Republican — 53 in 100 | Paula Elaine Kay | — | |
| 143 | Ryan J. Taughrin — 54 in 100 | Ryan J. Taughrin | — · Patrick J. Chludzinski (O) | |
| 115 | Republican — 55 in 100 | Michael Cashman | — · Michael S. Cashman (O) | |
| 25 | Nily D. Rozic — 56 in 100 | Nily D. Rozic | — | |
| 40 | Republican — 59 in 100 | Ronald T. Kim | — |