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The New York Senate Safe D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to hold control of the New York Senate.

Chance of D control97 in 100Expected Democratic seats 41.5 of 6380% range 3744
D 4163 seats · 32 for a majorityR 22
PVID+8
Seats up in 202663
Chamber size63
Majority threshold32
District by district

63 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
16John C. Liu — 52 in 100John C. LiuD+0.5
1Republican — 56 in 100E. Christopher Murray · Anthony H. Palumbo (O)R+1.5
43Devin R. Lander — 63 in 100Devin R. Lander · Jake Ashby (O)D+3.2
15Democratic — 63 in 100Joseph P. Addabbo Jr. · Albert Baldeo · Danniel Maio (O)D+3.2
23Republican — 64 in 100Omar Mohamad · Jessica Scarcella-Spanton · Ruslan Shamal (O)R+3.6
9Republican — 66 in 100Lisa Malkie Vider · Patricia M. Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick (O)R+4.1
39Democratic — 66 in 100Lisa Kaul · Gay Lee · Evan R. Menist · Robert G. Rolison (O)D+4.2
7Republican — 66 in 100Rory I. Lancman · Jacob Ryan Blumencranz (O)R+4.2
50Christopher J. Ryan — 67 in 100Christopher J. Ryan · James Corl (O)D+4.3
45Republican — 74 in 100Melissa T. Seale · Daniel G. Stec (O)R+6.4
The Race Feed · 2 items across New York races →