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North Carolina · House · State Legislature

The North Carolina House Likely R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the North Carolina House.

Chance of R control82 in 100Expected Democratic seats 53.1 of 12080% range 4655
D 49120 seats · 61 for a majorityR 71
PVIR+1
Seats up in 2026120
Chamber size120
Majority threshold61
District by district

120 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
25Republican — 50 in 100Harris Walker · Lorenza M. WilkinsAllen Chesser · Nick Taylor (O)R+0.1
32Democratic — 52 in 100Melissa Elliott · Curtis McRae · Curtis McRae - WITHDRAWNPamela M. Ayscue · Frank SossamonD+0.4
105Ken McCool — 53 in 100Ken McCoolTricia Ann Cotham · Kelly VanHornD+0.7
48Garland E. Pierce — 54 in 100Garland E. PierceRalph Carter · Kirk LoweryD+0.9
24Republican — 57 in 100Dante PittmanBlake BoykinR+1.7
35Republican — 58 in 100Evonne S. HopkinsMichele Joyner-Dinwiddie · Mike SchietzeltR+2.1
98Beth Helfrich — 60 in 100Beth HelfrichJohn RhodesD+2.6
115Anthony J. Penland — 62 in 100Lindsey PratherAnthony J. PenlandR+2.9
37Erin Pare — 62 in 100Ralph Clements · Winn Decker · Marcus GadsonErin PareR+2.9
62John M. Blust — 73 in 100Shelly HeadenJohn M. BlustR+6.1
The Race Feed · 3 items across North Carolina races →