Oklahoma · House · State Legislature

The Oklahoma House Safe R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Oklahoma House.

Chance of R control>99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 18.7 of 10180% range 16–22

D 20101 seats · 51 for a majorityR 81

PVIR+17

Seats up in 2026101

Chamber size101

Majority threshold51

District by district

101 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band

Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct

Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe No forecast — field unsettled or outside the D-vs-R model

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

			Democrat	Republican
100	Modeled D-vs-R	Marilyn Stark — 52 in 100	Chaunté Gilmore	Marilyn Stark	R+0.6
34	Modeled D-vs-R	Trish Ranson — 61 in 100	Trish Ranson	Aaron Means · Ted Riley	D+2.7
93	Modeled D-vs-R	Democratic — 63 in 100	Mickey Dollens	—	D+3.3
46	Modeled D-vs-R	Jacob Rosecrants — 66 in 100	Jacob Rosecrants	—	D+4.1
77	Modeled D-vs-R	Democratic — 68 in 100	Kristina Gabriel · John Waldron	—	D+4.7
62	Modeled D-vs-R	Daniel Pae — 72 in 100	Blake Munoz	Daniel Pae	R+5.7
45	Modeled D-vs-R	Democratic — 73 in 100	Annie Menz · Evan Nathaniel	—	D+6.0
94	Modeled D-vs-R	Democratic — 79 in 100	Andy Fugate	—	D+7.9
95	Modeled D-vs-R	Republican — 80 in 100	Tegan Malone	Brent Rinehart · Max Wolfley · Alexander Yoder · Ryan Gardner (O)	R+8.4
64	Modeled D-vs-R	Louis Jackson — 87 in 100	Kathy Suttles	Louis Jackson	R+11.1