Oklahoma · Senate · State Legislature

The Oklahoma Senate Safe R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Oklahoma Senate.

Chance of R control>99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 8.0 of 4880% range 4–12

D 848 seatsR 40

PVIR+17

Seats up in 202624

Chamber size48

District by district

48 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band

Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct

Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe No forecast — field unsettled or outside the D-vs-R model Not on the 2026 ballot (staggered term)

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

			Democrat	Republican
44	Modeled D-vs-R	Democratic — 70 in 100	Michael Brooks	—	D+5.1
40	Modeled D-vs-R	Democratic — 87 in 100	Carri Hicks	—	D+11.0
16	Modeled D-vs-R	Mary B. Boren — 97 in 100	Mary B. Boren	—	D+19.2
42	Modeled D-vs-R	Republican — 99 in 100	Chris Jones	Malana Bracht · Brenda Stanley	R+22.4
46	Modeled D-vs-R	Democratic — 99 in 100	Mark Mann	—	D+22.7
32	Modeled D-vs-R	Republican — 99 in 100	Booker T. Newton	Dusty Deevers · Curtis W. Erwin · Jean Hausheer · Valentin Peña (O)	R+22.8
22	Modeled D-vs-R	Kristen Thompson — 99 in 100	Kenny Kemper	Kristen Thompson	R+23.6
34	Modeled D-vs-R	Republican — >99 in 100	Amy Hossain	Brent Driskill · Aaron Forst · Dana Prieto · Kent Taylor	R+26.3
24	Modeled D-vs-R	Republican — >99 in 100	Jonathan Morales	Heather Boss · Tammi Didlot · Bryan Husted · Robert Keyes · Jon Painter · Melissa Elder (O)	R+26.5
18	Modeled D-vs-R	Republican — >99 in 100	MEREDITH McGINNIS	Tyler Herring · Misty Shannon · Jack Stewart	R+31.1