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The Oregon Senate Safe D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Democrats are favored to hold control of the Oregon Senate.

Chance of D control94 in 100Expected Democratic seats 18.5 of 3080% range 1820
D 1830 seatsR 12
PVID+8
Seats up in 202615
Chamber size30
District by district

30 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe Not on the 2026 ballot (staggered term)

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
16Modeled D-vs-RRepublican — 65 in 100Rachel Armitage · Aaron Dickie · Jordan GutierrezCourtney Bangs · Tripp Dietrich · Frank A MansfieldR+3.7
11Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 70 in 100Teresa Alonso Leon · Virginia StapletonTracy M CramerD+5.2
26Modeled D-vs-RJeff Helfrich — 76 in 100Nicole Bassett · Matthew FavroJeff HelfrichR+6.9
3Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 90 in 100James (Jim) A Crary · Denise D Krause · Tonia Moro · Cristian Mendoza Ruvalcaba · Kevin StineBrad HicksD+12.5
20Modeled D-vs-RMark Meek — 93 in 100Mark MeekMichele StrohD+14.3
10Modeled D-vs-RDeb Patterson — 95 in 100Deb PattersonAngela PlowheadD+16.1
6Modeled D-vs-RRepublican — 99 in 100Sierrah WilliamsJami Cate · Nicole De Graff · Jack TibbettsR+23.1
8Modeled D-vs-RSara Gelser Blouin — 99 in 100Sara Gelser BlouinValerie Draper WoldeitD+24.2
24Modeled D-vs-RKayse Jama — 99 in 100Kayse JamaD+24.4
15Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — >99 in 100Myrna A Munoz · Nelly A Donis-Purcell · Janeen SollmanHarold HutchisonD+26.6