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The Pennsylvania House Lean D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to take control of the Pennsylvania House.

Chance of R control67 in 100Expected Democratic seats 98.0 of 20380% range 87104
D 102203 seats · 102 for a majorityR 101
PVIR+1
Seats up in 2026203
Chamber size203
Majority threshold102
District by district

203 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
144Republican — 51 in 100Brian MunroeMichael J. MurphyR+0.3
172Republican — 53 in 100Sean DoughertyWallace J. QuinlanR+0.8
88Republican — 54 in 100Sara M. AgertonJeff Clark · Savannah MartinR+0.9
137Republican — 54 in 100Jeffrey M. WarrenJoe EmrickR+0.9
121Republican — 54 in 100JESSICA MCCLAY · MICHAEL J STADULISMichael Harostock III · MIKE HAROSTOCKR+1.0
112Kyle Mullins — 54 in 100Kyle MullinsJoseph Sabia Jr.D+1.1
3Ryan Bizzarro — 58 in 100Ryan BizzarroDonna ReeseD+2.0
174Ed Neilson — 63 in 100Ed NeilsonD+3.2
38John Inglis — 63 in 100John InglisStone Sobieralski[a]D+3.3
18Kathleen Tomlinson — 63 in 100Bryan F. Allen Jr.Kathleen TomlinsonR+3.3
The Race Feed · 3 items across Pennsylvania races →