This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Call the Map does not publish a binary control probability for the Pennsylvania Senate. The current district rows remain available below, with each publishable, structural, and unsettled seat labeled in its own claim class.
The district-by-district results for this chamber don't yet roll up into a chamber-wide total the model will stand behind, so no control probability is published. The seat estimate below is still the model's.
50 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Modeled D-vs-R | NICK MILLER — 53 in 100 | NICK MILLER | OMY MALDONADO | |
| 24 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 59 in 100 | CHRIS THOMAS | TRACY E PENNYCUICK | |
| 22 | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 66 in 100 | MARTY FLYNN · JEFFREY LAKE | Sharon Soltis · SHARON SOLTIS SPARANO | |
| 18 | Modeled D-vs-R | LISA BOSCOLA — 69 in 100 | LISA BOSCOLA | SCOTT JANNEY | |
| 6 | Modeled D-vs-R | Frank Farry — 71 in 100 | Eileen T. Hartnett Albillar | Frank Farry | |
| 40 | Modeled D-vs-R | ROSEMARY BROWN — 75 in 100 | BRIAN WRIGHTSON | ROSEMARY BROWN | |
| 16 | Modeled D-vs-R | Jarrett Coleman — 82 in 100 | Bradley Douglas Merkl-Gump · Mark Pinsley | Jarrett Coleman | |
| 10 | Modeled D-vs-R | Steve Santarsiero — 85 in 100 | Steve Santarsiero | Gregory J. Bankos Jr. | |
| 38 | Modeled D-vs-R | Lindsey Williams — 85 in 100 | Lindsey Williams | Thomas West | |
| 44 | Modeled D-vs-R | KATIE MUTH — 86 in 100 | KATIE MUTH | MELISSA DICRANIAN |