This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Republicans are favored to hold control of the South Dakota Senate.
35 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 51 in 100 | Celestine Stadnick | Anthony Kathol | |
| 32 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 58 in 100 | Jeff Shelton | Helene Duhamel · Karen M. McNeal | |
| 15 | Modeled D-vs-R | Erik Muckey — 60 in 100 | Erik Muckey | Brenda Lawrence | |
| 14 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 64 in 100 | — | R. Shawn Tornow · Larry P. Zikmund | |
| 12 | Modeled D-vs-R | Kari Shanard-Koenders — 70 in 100 | Joe Zweifel | Kari Shanard-Koenders | |
| 10 | Modeled D-vs-R | Liz Larson — 79 in 100 | Liz Larson | Michael Dupic | |
| 11 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 83 in 100 | Aaron Matson | Chris Karr · Graham Oey | |
| 13 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 86 in 100 | — | Dan Kippley · Sue Peterson | |
| 7 | Modeled D-vs-R | Tim Reed — 88 in 100 | — | Tim Reed | |
| 26 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 91 in 100 | Shawn Bordeaux · Troy "Luke" Lunderman | Tamara R Grove · Rebecca Reimer |