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The Tennessee House Safe R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Tennessee House.

Chance of R control>99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 24.9 of 9980% range 2226
D 2499 seats · 50 for a majorityR 75
PVIR+14
Seats up in 202699
Chamber size99
Majority threshold50
District by district

99 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe No forecast — field unsettled or outside the D-vs-R model

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
67Modeled D-vs-RRepublican — 51 in 100Ronnie L. GlynnChris LanierR+0.2
59Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 61 in 100Rick Ewing · Angie Lawless · Mark Proctor · Beth WestBill HancockD+2.6
80Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 64 in 100Shelia L. Godwin · Andrea Bond Johnson · Bethany N MillerJulian A. McTizicD+3.6
50Modeled D-vs-RBo Mitchell — 68 in 100Bo MitchellD+4.6
83Modeled D-vs-RMark White — 73 in 100Margaret PriceMark WhiteR+6.0
97Modeled D-vs-RJesse Huseth — 76 in 100Jesse HusethJohn GillespieD+7.0
18Modeled D-vs-RRepublican — 83 in 100Bryan GoldbergElaine Davis · Brent N. Jones · Elliott SchuchardtR+9.3
60Modeled D-vs-RShaundelle Brooks — 85 in 100Shaundelle BrooksEva Angelina RomeroD+10.3
75Modeled D-vs-RMichael Lankford — 91 in 100Allie PhillipsMichael LankfordR+13.2
90Modeled D-vs-RGloria Johnson — 92 in 100Gloria JohnsonD+13.8