This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Republicans are favored to hold control of the Tennessee Senate.
33 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Modeled D-vs-R | Brent Taylor — 96 in 100 | David Weatherspoon | Brent Taylor | |
| 7 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — 97 in 100 | Bryan Langan | Richard M. Briggs · Kent Morrell | |
| 11 | Modeled D-vs-R | Bo Watson — 97 in 100 | Tim Roberts | Bo Watson | |
| 21 | Modeled D-vs-R | Jeff Yarbro — 99 in 100 | Jeff Yarbro | — | |
| 13 | Modeled D-vs-R | Dawn White — >99 in 100 | Angela Evans Wynn | Dawn White | |
| 17 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — >99 in 100 | Joni Cochran · Lindsey Patrick-Wright | Theodore (Butch) Baker · Mark Pody | |
| 27 | Modeled D-vs-R | Jack Johnson — >99 in 100 | David A Hardy | Jack Johnson | |
| 5 | Modeled D-vs-R | Jimmy Matlock — >99 in 100 | David Miller | Jimmy Matlock | |
| 25 | Modeled D-vs-R | Ed Jackson — >99 in 100 | — | Ed Jackson | |
| 3 | Modeled D-vs-R | Republican — >99 in 100 | — | Rusty Crowe · Dan Pohlgeers |