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The Utah House Safe R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Utah House.

Chance of R control99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 19.1 of 7580% range 1421
D 1475 seats · 38 for a majorityR 61
PVIR+11
Seats up in 202675
Chamber size75
Majority threshold38
District by district

75 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
26MATT MACPHERSON — 55 in 100MICHAEL E FINCHMATT MACPHERSON · TRAVIS ALICO (O)R+1.3
37ASHLEE MATTHEWS — 60 in 100ASHLEE MATTHEWSCASEY SAXTOND+2.6
42IVA WILLIAMS — 61 in 100IVA WILLIAMSCLINT OKERLUNDD+2.7
10JIM ALVEY — 62 in 100ROSEMARY T LESSERJIM ALVEYR+3.0
30JAKE FITISEMANU — 62 in 100JAKE FITISEMANUDAVE PARKED+3.1
36JIM DUNNIGAN — 65 in 100JIM DUNNIGANR+3.9
39KEN IVORY — 70 in 100DREW HOWELLSKEN IVORYR+5.1
43OFA MATAGI — 72 in 100OFA MATAGISTEVE ELIASOND+5.8
27ANTHONY LOUBET — 76 in 100LIZ OATESANTHONY LOUBET · JEFFREY MARSHALL (O)R+7.0
20MELISSA BALLARD — 78 in 100PHIL GRAVESMELISSA BALLARDR+7.5