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The Utah Senate Safe R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Utah Senate.

Chance of R control>99 in 100Expected Democratic seats 6.0 of 2980% range 57
D 629 seatsR 23
PVIR+11
Seats up in 202615
Chamber size29
District by district

29 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe Not on the 2026 ballot (staggered term)

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
12Modeled D-vs-RKAREN KWAN — 75 in 100KAREN KWANDEIDRE TYLERD+6.6
19Modeled D-vs-RKIRK CULLIMORE — 82 in 100SHANA ANDERSONKIRK CULLIMORER+9.1
5Modeled D-vs-RJILL F. KOFORD — 88 in 100"CJ" CHRISTINA HERNANDEZ · DAKOTA WURTHJILL F. KOFORDR+11.8
7Modeled D-vs-RRepublican — >99 in 100GARRET RUSHFORTHSTUART ADAMS · BRADEN HESS · STEPHANIE HOLLIST · JEFFREY OSTLER (O)R+26.0
18Modeled D-vs-RRepublican — >99 in 100A DANE ANDERSONDOUG FIEFIA · DANIEL MCCAYR+31.4
23Modeled D-vs-RKEITH GROVER — >99 in 100TUCKER SMITHKEITH GROVERR+32.1
14Modeled D-vs-RSTEPHANIE PITCHER — >99 in 100STEPHANIE PITCHERD+32.3
6Modeled D-vs-RTAMI TRAN — >99 in 100JARED NEALTAMI TRAN · JOSH SMITH (O)R+34.9
20Modeled D-vs-RRONALD M WINTERTON — >99 in 100RONALD M WINTERTON · ANNETTE MCRAE (O)R+35.9
11Modeled D-vs-RBROOKS BENSON — >99 in 100MACKENZIE MILLERBROOKS BENSON · EMILY BUSS (O)R+36.0