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The Vermont House Safe D

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Governed withheld forecast · district map available

Call the Map does not publish a binary control probability for the Vermont House. The current district rows remain available below, with each publishable, structural, and unsettled seat labeled in its own claim class.

The district-by-district results for this chamber don't yet roll up into a chamber-wide total the model will stand behind, so no control probability is published. The seat estimate below is still the model's.

D 87143 seatsR 56
PVID+17
Chamber size150
District by district

109 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe No forecast — field unsettled or outside the D-vs-R model

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
F-7Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 53 in 100Allen "Penny" DemarD+0.7
E-CModeled D-vs-RRepublican — 53 in 100John KascenskaR+0.7
ORCModeled D-vs-RRepublican — 54 in 100James Merriam · Aiden Boyd OttermanTom OttermanR+0.9
O-3Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 55 in 100Kenneth L. WellsD+1.2
OR1Modeled D-vs-RDemocratic — 56 in 100Michael "Mike" TagliaviaD+1.5
R-8Modeled D-vs-RGenevieve K. Duchesneau — 60 in 100Genevieve K. DuchesneauAlicia MalayD+2.6
R-3Modeled D-vs-RChris Brown — 64 in 100Chris BrownR+3.4
R-1Modeled D-vs-RPatricia A. Mccoy — 64 in 100Patricia A. MccoyR+3.6
OR3Modeled D-vs-RFran Covey — 65 in 100Fran CoveyR+3.8
CA1Modeled D-vs-RDavid Tucker — 76 in 100David TuckerDebra "Debbie" PowersD+6.8