This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →
Democrats are favored to hold control of the Vermont Senate.
16 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.
Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.
| Democrat | Republican | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 59 in 100 | — | John Morley Iii | |
| ESX | Modeled D-vs-R | Russ Ingalls — 75 in 100 | — | Russ Ingalls | |
| CAL | Modeled D-vs-R | David M. Roth — 96 in 100 | David M. Roth | Scott L. Beck | |
| ORA | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — 97 in 100 | Rose Lucenti · Monique Priestley | John K. Benson | |
| CHN | Modeled D-vs-R | Irene Wrenner — 99 in 100 | Irene Wrenner | Ashley R. Bartley | |
| LAM | Modeled D-vs-R | Democratic — >99 in 100 | — | Richard A. Westman | |
| GRI | Modeled D-vs-R | Kim Gleason — >99 in 100 | Kim Gleason | Pat Brennan | |
| ADD | Field not settled | None until the field is set | Ruth Hardy · Hannah Sessions | Steven Heffernan · Andrew Klein · Andrea Treadway | — |
| BEN | Field not settled | None until the field is set | Seth Bongartz · Amy D. Moore · Robert F. Plunkett | Lawrence "Spike" Whitmire · Josh R. Williams · Rachel Shaw (O) | — |
| CHC | Field not settled | None until the field is set | Nikhil Goyal · Martine Larocque Gulick · Elaine Haney · Tanya Vyhovsky | — | — |