Draw a November

The forecast simulates election night 100,000 times. Each edition keeps every 50th simulation whole, 2,000 of them, with the winner of every race in it, and this page draws from those. The Senate, House and governor results on a card come from the same simulation, so they move together the way the forecast says they should. Every count of how rare a night is uses the same 2,000 nights, and says so.

Who counts as a Democratic seat. The Senate count includes the two sitting independents who caucus with the Democrats, and, where no Democrat is on the ballot, the independent who runs in that place (Osborn in Nebraska, Achilles in Idaho, Bengs in South Dakota), as in our published chance of control. They are named as independents and drawn in the independent’s color. Where more than two strong candidates run, as in Montana’s Senate race and Alaska’s House seat, the card names the one who won that night. Forecast editions before October 26, 2026 recorded only whether the Democrat won there, so for a night from one of them the card names both the Republican and the independent and draws the seat gray.

A seat changes hands when the party that wins it in the draw is not the party that holds it now. A close race held is one our forecast rates Toss-up, Tilt or Lean that the holding party keeps in the draw.

The order the races fill in follows roughly when polls close, east to west, with the seats that change hands last. It sets the rhythm of the draw only; it says nothing about when any race will be known.