State Legislature · Washington · r64-20260730-236b8cdd42f0
Washington Senate District 31
State Senate · Candidate field unresolved
PublicationBinary forecast published
RatingLikely R
Forecast marginR+7.3
Democratic win probability22.7%
Party callRepublican
Candidate adjustmentIncluded in sealed margin
How this margin was built is not available for this surface yet. The statewide-downballot and state-legislative published artifacts carry the final center but not an end-to-end contribution ledger. The site will not invent or recompute one in the client.
TWIN means Typology-Weighted Inference from Neighbors, Call the Map’s comparable-unit matching engine for any kind of race. It borrows poll residuals only—never centers, terrain, or outcomes. Similarity is demographic and behavioural, not geographic, and each contribution decays with similarity distance. Borrowed evidence always has lower precision than a race’s own polling.
No TWIN signal is published. No published TWIN evidence row exists for this race or surface.
Washington Senate · District 3149 districts · as of 2026-07-30
Model estimate — a seat-level forecast, not a call.