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State Legislature · California · r64-20260730-236b8cdd42f0

California Assembly District 4

State House · Partially Verified Field

PublicationParty control determined by the field
RatingNot applicable
Forecast marginWithheld
Democratic win probabilityWithheld
Party callDemocratic
Candidate adjustmentNot applied
Comparable evidenceFloor 0.05 · precision discount 0.1

TWIN neighbours

TWIN means Typology-Weighted Inference from Neighbors, Call the Map’s comparable-unit matching engine for any kind of race. It borrows poll residuals only—never centers, terrain, or outcomes. Similarity is demographic and behavioural, not geographic, and each contribution decays with similarity distance. Borrowed evidence always has lower precision than a race’s own polling.

No TWIN signal is published. No published TWIN evidence row exists for this race or surface.
California Assembly · District 480 districts · as of 2026-07-30
No win probability is published — the November field settles control by itself.
Seat classSettled — same-party control
Chamber76 of 80 seats modelled
The whole California Assembly
Closest races in this chambermodelled seats · closest first

Candidate field