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State Legislature · Vermont · r64-20260730-236b8cdd42f0

Vermont House District C21

State House · Candidate field unresolved

PublicationBinary forecast withheld
RatingNot applicable
Forecast marginWithheld
Democratic win probabilityWithheld
Party callWithheld
Candidate adjustmentNot applied

No two-party margin is published here because more than one candidate wins this seat, so a single two-party margin would not describe the result. The underlying structural centre is still carried in the simulation accounting; it is simply not presented as a public two-party forecast.

Comparable evidenceFloor 0.05 · precision discount 0.1

TWIN neighbours

TWIN means Typology-Weighted Inference from Neighbors, Call the Map’s comparable-unit matching engine for any kind of race. It borrows poll residuals only—never centers, terrain, or outcomes. Similarity is demographic and behavioural, not geographic, and each contribution decays with similarity distance. Borrowed evidence always has lower precision than a race’s own polling.

No TWIN signal is published. No published TWIN evidence row exists for this race or surface.
Vermont House · District C21109 districts · as of 2026-07-30
No share projection until the matchup is set.
Seat classField not settled
Chamber62 of 109 seats modelled
The whole Vermont House
Closest races in this chambermodelled seats · closest first

Candidate field

D · Nomination unresolvedDemocratic nominee TBDParty baseline shown until an exact, source-backed nominee event resolves the field.
Recorded primary-field candidate records

These records remain accessible for identity and evidence history. None is presented as the nominee until the governed status feed resolves the party slot.