State Legislature · Washington · r64-20260730-236b8cdd42f0
Washington House District 28-2
State House · Candidate field unresolved
PublicationBinary forecast published
RatingSolid D
Forecast marginD+21.6
Democratic win probability98.6%
Party callDemocratic
Candidate adjustmentIncluded in sealed margin
How this margin was built is not available for this surface yet. The statewide-downballot and state-legislative published artifacts carry the final center but not an end-to-end contribution ledger. The site will not invent or recompute one in the client.
TWIN means Typology-Weighted Inference from Neighbors, Call the Map’s comparable-unit matching engine for any kind of race. It borrows poll residuals only—never centers, terrain, or outcomes. Similarity is demographic and behavioural, not geographic, and each contribution decays with similarity distance. Borrowed evidence always has lower precision than a race’s own polling.
No TWIN signal is published. No published TWIN evidence row exists for this race or surface.
Washington House · District 28 · Position 249 districts · as of 2026-07-30
Model estimate — a seat-level forecast, not a call.
Seat classModeled D-vs-R
Forecast marginD+21.6
FavouredDemocratic 99%
Race uncertainty±9.8
Chamber98 of 98 seats modelled
This district elects more than one member, so the polygon above is shared. Position 1 is on the same ballot.